And so this extraordinary year, 2022, rolls to an end, and we are faced with the prospect of even more extraordinariness in 2023. It’s going to be a big, historical year in many ways, and here are some thoughts on what might be coming up.
We will divide the world into three sections and start with the United States. We predict that 2023 will see most importantly, the humiliation of Donald Trump, and him being effectively sidelined politically. The poison is still in there, but the Biden administration is going to continue to make progress on many of its core platform issues, because the Republican Party in the house is going to be in disarray. The economy of the US will remain fundamentally strong, and Elon Musk will continue to be a psychological roller coaster. We hope a credible alternative to Twitter emerges and that his pinball approach to everything doesn’t affect the positives of SpaceX.
Section 2 is Europe, and the next year will see the climax to the war in Ukraine. The speech by President Zelenskyy in Washington yesterday is as good an indicator as any of how this is going to play out, and it is not going to end well for the Russian empire. We cannot predict precisely when and how it ends obviously, but it surely will reach its denouement in 2023. The European economy is gonna be in tough straits, but it has been there before, and will come out of it okay in the end. Europe is not finished.
In Asia, the big story will be the continuing gathering of gloomy, negative economic clouds over China, while India and Southeast Asia do okay. Given the awful situation in China in 2022 with lockdowns, quarantines and disruptions, the 2023 numbers are going to see an uptick, but that won’t address the host of fundamental and mostly systemic problems they are facing. The most significant change that has taken place in China in the past year, it seems to us, is a shift in attitude amongst ordinary Chinese people, the middle class, private businesses, and foreign investors with regard to the future. A shift from generally optimistic to generally pessimistic, which has big implications. We are likely to see a gradual ramping down of various indicators. But so much of it will have to be anecdotal. Current virus mortality stats refer. The general assumption of many commentators these days that China can no longer aspire to be the world’s biggest economy in any foreseeable future could be correct. India is expected to top China next year to become the world’s most populous country, and India over the past year has for the first time topped China in terms of the amount of fees it generates for US investment banks. There’s something in that fact that is worth mulling.
We’ve said it before, but history is speeding up and many of the trends are not negative. US researchers apparently have made a significant breakthrough on fusion energy production, and 2023 may well see other unexpected developments, maybe in the medical area, maybe in other technology, which impact on the human race in positive ways. Now more than ever, this is a time to be watching and thinking about the implications of what is going on around us, treasuring what is positive and standing up to the negatives. We wish you all a fantastic festive season and a new year which is safe and prosperous.
Oh, and have a great weekend.