This week saw the end of an era with the passing of Henry Kissinger, at the age of 100. He is today very much associated with China, but the way it started back in the early 1970s was that Dr K’s main goal was to counter the threat of the Soviet Union by creating an alliance with China that undercut Moscow’s position. His geopolitical game had huge consequences for China and unquestionably had the positive consequence of helping to trigger a shift that, in due course after Mao’s death, resulted in an opening up process and market reforms. China being a part of the world rather than isolated is obviously a good thing. But the question then and now is precisely the nature of China’s integration into the world and the nature of the relationship between China and the rest of the world. Kissinger’s view, to hyperbolize dramatically, was one of appeasement, that is allowing China to hold to a worldview which is to some extent at variance with that of the global framework in general and the West specifically. The idea was that if we allowed them into the tent, then they will see the superior nature of the other system and change. It didn’t turn out like that. But Kissinger, for reasons arguably linked to his own business interests, stuck to his original line and had a significant impact on US policy and by extension the policies other countries for decades afterwards.
This week was also noteworthy for another historical reason. Mr Xi made his first visit to Shanghai in four years. There was some speculation about whether the visit would be used to signal a sharp and definitive shift towards market friendly policies, mirroring Deng’s visit to the city in 1992 which unleashed massive economic development. But the read-outs of the visit so far in the state media do not indicate that the visit will be used to signal any fundamental changes to current policy lines. History marches on regardless.
Have a great weekend.